Market outlook, September 2026, 4 September 2026Prices are falling, the labour market is loosening, and inflation is not co-operating.Home values fell for a fifth month in August and Sydney is now falling faster than in the 2022 correction. Unemployment reached 4.5 per cent. Trimmed mean inflation has not moved since May. And a large Western Sydney developer entered administration owing about $3.4 billion to private lenders.Read
Paper 09 · Correlation, 31 August 2026Uncorrelated, examined.Nearly every private credit fund describes its returns as uncorrelated with the sharemarket, and the statistics appear to support the claim. This paper starts with the weakness in those statistics: a loan with no traded price cannot show volatility, so part of the smoothness in the sector's return charts comes from not measuring. Critics call this volatility laundering. The paper explains their point, agrees with part of it, and then sets out what genuinely remains once the flattering statistic is put aside.Read
Fund notes, 28 August 2026Where the fund is up toA short update on the licence, the trustee and custodian arrangements, and when the fund expects to write its first loan.Read
Paper 08 · Valuation, 27 August 2026The return you buy and the return you hope for.A standard measure of how expensively the US sharemarket is priced closed July 2026 above 42, its second highest level in about 145 years of records. History suggests decade long returns from starting points like this one have mostly been thin, with wide variation. A loan works differently: its return is written into the contract on day one. This paper explains both patterns with the arithmetic on the table, including the part where the same pricing law applies to lenders.Read
Paper 07 · Collateral, 24 August 2026The 15 kilometre question.Every recovery calculation in this series assumes the security property can be sold to a real buyer, at a real price, within about ninety days. Whether that assumption holds depends on how many buyers a local market actually has, and buyer depth can be measured from published data. This paper sets out the three measurements Oxford applies to every region before lending in it, with Sydney sales volumes currently running 17 per cent below a year earlier, and publishes the criteria so investors can check our loans against them.Read
Paper 06 · The sector, 20 August 2026The RBA is asking good questions about our industry.The Reserve Bank's March 2026 Financial Stability Review reports strong growth in non-bank and private credit lending, notes that some lenders have loosened loan conditions in property development finance, and states that regulators have limited information about private credit lending standards. This paper summarises those findings accurately, agrees that the questions are fair, and answers them with a specific list: the ten numbers we believe any pooled mortgage fund should publish, which Oxford commits to publishing quarterly from its first loan.Read
Paper 05 · Collateral, 17 August 2026Why first, and why registered.When a property loan goes wrong in New South Wales, the order in which people get paid is set by the land titles register, under rules most investors have never had a reason to read. This paper explains those rules in plain language: what registration does, what a caveat is actually worth, how a mortgagee sale works, and what a fund offering 4 per cent more for holding second mortgages is paying that extra 4 per cent for.Read
Paper 04 · Collateral, 13 August 2026What a 30% correction does to a 65% loan.Sydney dwelling values are about 3.7 per cent below their recent peak, so this is the right time to publish a stress test. We take a first mortgage written at 65 per cent of an independent valuation, assume the borrower defaults, and sell the property at the bottom of each of Sydney's three modern downturns, then at the bottom of an invented 30 per cent fall larger than any of them. Every cost of getting there is charged along the way: selling costs, nine months of unpaid interest, and legal and holding costs.Read
Paper 03 · Defensive, 10 August 2026The defensive bucket, audited.The main Australian bond index sits inside the defensive part of most balanced super options. Between 1990 and 2020 it recorded two negative years. Across 2021 and 2022 it fell 12.7 per cent from peak to trough, its largest fall on record, during the same period as a global share market downturn. This paper sets out what the index holds, prices a one percentage point move in interest rates against it, and puts the result in dollars on an ordinary balance.Read
Paper 02 · Concentration, 6 August 2026Seven business models, one trade.Seven American companies now make up about a third of the S&P 500, the main US sharemarket index. Most Australians own these companies through the international shares part of their super without having chosen them. This paper measures the exposure in dollars, walks through what happened when the group fell in June 2026, and notes, in fairness, that the same seven trailed the broader market across the first half of the year. The argument is about measurement, not prediction.Read