Market outlook, August 2026, 6 August 2026Inflation eases enough for a pause, and values fall faster.June's inflation figures came in below the Reserve Bank's forecast, and the market now expects the cash rate to stay at 4.35 per cent this month. Home values fell 0.7 per cent in July, the largest monthly fall since December 2022, and Sydney fell twice as fast.Read
Paper 01 ยท Defensive, 3 August 2026Ninety-four years is a long time to be wrong.In 2020 Austria borrowed money for one hundred years at an interest rate of 0.85 per cent. Austria has paid every cent of interest on time. The people who lent the money are down roughly two thirds. This paper explains how both of those facts are true at once, using the bond as a worked example of interest rate risk, and then applies the lesson to the defensive part of an ordinary Australian portfolio.Read
Market outlook, July 2026, 6 July 2026Values turn down, and the Budget changes the investor maths.Home values posted their sharpest monthly fall in three and a half years in June, led by Sydney. The Reserve Bank paused after three increases, and the Budget has changed the after-tax arithmetic for anyone buying an established investment property.Read